The targets for climate change outlined in the Paris Accord are easier to achieve than commonly thought. That’s the claim of researchers in Canada, who have defined climate outlooks in a way that is both simple and easier to analyse.
The new definition relies on just two parameters – total energy use this century, and the carbon intensity of that energy – that can be mapped onto a phase-space diagram. By data-mining that phase space, the researchers found that current “business as usual” scenarios given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assume increasing carbon intensity, or so-called re-carbonization – contrary to recent trends.
“By thinking that we’re definitely heading in a direction of re-carbonization before we institute climate policies, it makes climate policy that aims for de-carbonization look overly difficult,” said Justin Ritchie of the University of British Columbia. “If we update our outlook for business-as-usual, the necessary climate policies to guide a low-carbon transition appear far more achievable than previously thought.” […]
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