Posts Tagged ‘ERW’

Realistic ice data ‘crucial’ to climate models

Published in ERW, 11 Mar 2013

Realistic sea-ice data are crucial to the reliable predictions of climate models. That is the conclusion of an international group of scientists, who warn against the use of models that employ averaged or “climatological” sea-ice conditions.

The steady loss of sea ice around the Arctic over the past few decades is expected to have a strong impact on the climate. Recent studies have linked the loss of ice to a cooling over mid-latitudes in the northern hemisphere – a counterintuitive result, since the lost ice should itself have had a reflective, cooling quality. Scientists think that an initial warming caused by the ice loss might have weakened the sub-polar jet stream, which would have eased the flow of cold Arctic air southwards. In any case, the message seems clear: there is a complex interaction between sea ice and the climate, which scientists need to understand. […]

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Cellulosic biofuels will be pricier than oil

Published in ERW, 8 Mar 2013

Advanced “cellulosic” biofuels that have a low carbon footprint will struggle in coming decades to compete economically with oil, a study by researchers in China and the US has revealed. The study, which takes into account the cost reduction that results from stimulated production, estimates that cellulosic biofuels will still be at least 40% more expensive than oil in two decades.

Cellulosic biofuels are a type of ethanol biofuel derived from lignocellulose, the basic structural material of plants. Compared with widely used biofuels, such as ethanol derived from corn or sugarcane, cellulosic biofuel has a much lower carbon footprint. This is largely down to the grassy crops used – miscanthus and switchgrass, which require little fertilizer to grow, and from which woody “lignin” can be extracted to convert into liquid fuel. […]

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Forests have ‘lagged’ response to extreme climate

Published in ERW, 4 Mar 2013

Researchers in Europe have uncovered how forests dating back to the 16th century responded to extreme climate events such as droughts. The analysis, which reveals that an extreme event can affect the growth of trees for more than one year, should help scientists develop more accurate vegetation models.

An extreme climate event is one that falls outside normal climate variability. However, the precise definition depends on the time period covered. Over the short term, floods or storms can classify as extreme events. Longer-term events can include prolonged periods of high or low temperatures. Examples of these include the 2010 wildfires in Russia and the 2003 heatwave in southern and central Europe, which is estimated to have caused around 70,000 deaths. […]

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Tundra fires become more widespread

Published in ERW, 21 Feb 2013

Wildfires in Alaska have become more widespread over the past 50 years, according to scientists in the US. The result suggests that Arctic wildfires will have an important effect on the climate in years to come – although whether it will be positive or negative, the researchers cannot say.

Fires are well known to impact the climate by releasing sequestered carbon into the atmosphere. As the climate warms, scientists expect the number of wildfires to grow – and, as a result, more carbon to be released. […]

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Greater air stagnation could lead to more deaths

Published in ERW, 25 Jan 2013

The late 21st century will see up to 25% more days with stagnant air conditions than the end of last century, claim researchers in the US. The worsening conditions will most affect the eastern US, the Mediterranean and eastern China, and could increase the number of deaths due to air pollution.

Stagnation tends to occur in areas where the temperature is fairly even, the atmosphere is stable and there is little rainfall. It is a serious issue for the climate because it allows ozone and particulate matter to accumulate near the Earth’s surface. […]

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Uneven climate change due to atmospheric heat capacity

Published in ERW, 10 Dec 2012

Much of the unevenness in warming due to climate change is a result of a variation in the atmosphere’s heat capacity. The claim, made by researchers in Norway, is likely to be seen as ammunition against climate sceptics who have questioned why some parts of the world are apparently not warming.

Most scientists agree that the world is getting warmer due to anthropogenic carbon emissions. Some areas, such as the Arctic, appear to be warming faster than others. The phenomenon is temporal as well as geographical: in general, night-time temperatures have increased more than daytime temperatures. […]

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Morning fog affects vehicle pollution

Published in ERW, 4 Dec 2012

The presence of fog in the morning can affect the amount of ozone that lingers in the air during the combustion of ethanol, according to a US study. The result will make decisions trickier regarding the uptake of ethanol-based fuels, which some scientists already believe to be less clean burning than petrol.

The use of ethanol as a transport fuel has increased in recent years. Some countries, including Brazil, are already using high blends – up to “E100″, or 100% ethanol. Meanwhile, the US is expected to take on E85 – 85% ethanol and 15% petrol – in up to one in 10 vehicles by 2035, entailing an annual ethanol combustion of 9.5 billion gallons. […]

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Atmospheric discrepancies persist in climate models

Published in ERW, 4 Dec 2012

Researchers in the US have failed to resolve discrepancies between the predictions of atmospheric models and temperatures measured in the tropical upper troposphere. Their latest effort imposed historical sea-surface temperatures as a “boundary condition” on the models, but the predictions for warming were still greater than satellite temperature measurements.

Scientists are concerned about discrepancies between model temperature predictions and actual measurements of the upper troposphere because they may affect the models’ sensitivity to increased carbon dioxide. Although the discrepancies do not necessarily suggest that estimates of surface global warming will be inaccurate, they may indicate inaccuracies in the predictions for atmospheric circulation. […]

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Commercial agriculture is ‘most important driver’ of deforestation

Published in ERW, 15 Nov 2012

An international team claims to have the most comprehensive assessment yet of the drivers behind deforestation and forest degradation in the developing world. The assessment, which confirms agriculture as the main driver of deforestation, could help international organizations develop strategies to reduce carbon emissions.

Deforestation is being tackled internationally by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), through the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) programme. REDD seeks to give financial incentives to developing countries to reduce deforestation and forest degradation – the latter is essentially the thinning out of forests during processes such as selective logging. Meanwhile REDD’s offshoot programme, REDD+, seeks to deliver other benefits, such as biodiversity conservation. […]

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Patterns found in biosphere’s response to climate change

Published in ERW, 13 Nov 2012

Researchers in Sweden and Germany have uncovered patterns in the biosphere’s response to climate change. The findings also reveal the major sources of uncertainty in the way climate models treat the biosphere, which could help modellers reduce those uncertainties in the future.

The biosphere is one of the most critical influences on the climate, yet it is also one of the most poorly understood. Over very long periods, the biosphere neither sequesters nor releases carbon to the atmosphere, but on shorter timescales it can function as a net source, through plants’ absorption of carbon dioxide, or a sink – through the respiration and decomposition of plants, and the burning of wildfires. […]

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