El Niño could help forecast spring tornado activity three months ahead

Published in ERW, 11 Jun 2016

Springtime tornado outbreaks in the US could be forecast up to three months in advance thanks to a study that has linked tornado activity with changes in the climate phenomenon known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

The study, by scientists at the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), indicates that four distinct springtime ENSO patterns correlate with both the timing of US tornado outbreaks and the regions in which they occur.

Accurately forecasting such outbreaks could save money and lives. In the spring of 2011, hundreds of tornadoes killed more than 300 people and caused billions of dollars of damage during a single outbreak across the US. […]

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