Climate models underestimate temperature variability

Published in ERW, 3 Mar 2015

Future surface temperatures on Earth could be far more variable than currently predicted, according to researchers in Norway. The scientists believe the problem could be solved by improving the description in computer models of the atmospheric boundary layer under conditions of “stable stratification”.

The atmospheric boundary layer lies next to Earth and experiences the effects of the Earth’s surface. Stable stratification occurs when the ground is much colder than the air above – a discrepancy that reduces turbulence and traps heat at surface level. The result is a region that is very sensitive to changes in forcing, so that just a small addition of greenhouse gases can produce a big rise in temperature. […]

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